Safety, Risk and Reliability - top marks for exam about maintaining the highest level of safety for an industrial plant like a nuclear reactor contributed to award of with Distinction at Aberdeen's RGU Robert Gordon University

The EE4413 module exam for Safety, Risk and Reliability Management at the Department of Engineering at the Robert Gordon University actually was run with a cohort of students from the following courses - notice Environmental Sciences was a course involved along with lots of electronics and engineering courses, so these are the sorts of people who will have skills to build a nuclear reactor.

The lectures on this module were Dr Tony Miller and Dr G W D M Gunawardene also known as Muni. Muni actually was off sick for a few lectures and spoke about reliability which is very much complex maths like Calculus - could not understand any of that actually and did not seek to understand it either, however this person seems to have scanned also digitised and retained the information booklet on Reliability which was part of the module. This person scanned all his notes but really lecture material is really intellectual property considered copyright, but really being creative, analysing and putting events that happen into perspective is really important to foster ongoing progress. The booklet on Reliability is 65 pages in length - it may not be a great deal of use and the scanned document has not been convereted to text with Optical Character Recognition - easier more efficient actually to convert to PNG images with Windows Snipping Tool.

Computer program version numbers and stepwise refinement

This student at the time focused on Safety and Risk gaining top marks for the module or grade 6 six. At school, standard grade Maths was what this pupil achieved, did eventually gain grade A at intermediate one Maths in fifth year equivalent of standard grade general grade three 3. Maths may however be useful for computer programmers - maths and logic go hand in hand, maths logic useful for writing sequential, procedural computer programming also with stepwise refinement this is where steps are broken down like 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 - computer program versions and versioning work like this. This person is actually not any good at computer programming but always had a good grasp of the English language. Google Chrome Version number at present is 103.0.5060.134 (Official Build) (64-bit) - recall Internet Explorer 6 six was dominant for a long time as a web browser.

Is Dr Tony Miller still alive? He has a LinkedIn profile and also he has a wife since they both visited Aberdeen Art Gallery one lunch time. Aberdeen Art Gallery was next door to the Schoolhill main building Campus and administration building. Standing outside the Schoolhill building once, seagull poo or poop landed on this person's jacket this was around the time of this module. Aberdeen notorious for seagulls and actually unbeknown to this person student at the time lots of seagulls were above on the roof gathered in a Parliament - the rook birds group in Parliaments.

Dr Tony also known as Anthony Miller if still alive may recall he asked for a 10-page report and this person submitted 25 pages overwheming him in small print also impressing him too to a certain extent, but actually top marks came from the exam. Actually the coursework that was submitted has not been retained deleted actually. Windows XP actually was reinstalled many times, hard drive wiped.

The Exam questions have been retained, secure PDF document with password of exam which lists those courses that took comprised the module.

One question asked You are designing a computer system that is required to monitor and control certain hazardous operations within an industrial plant. The computer system has been identified as requiring to operate at the highest safety integrity level. Discuss the relative importance and effectiveness of the four techniques listed below in the design of the computer system. Define the terms used - Fault avoidance, fault removal, fault detection and fault tolerance.

So the exam focused on maintaining the highest level of safety for an industrial plant like a nuclear reactor.

It is a real shame that RGU did not provide exam papers to students or gave them back after an exam. As a student, this person did wish this happened and actually expressed this to Dr Tony Miller in coursework for the Quality In Manufacture module also linked to theories involved in management, which actually was assessed soley as coursework and this then student gained top marks for that module.

Another question asked - You are the new manager of Regent and Waterloo quays at Aberdeen harbour. You are in charge of 30 stevedores and two cranes, both mobile, which load and unload ships. You are concerned about the safety of the workforce. Describe what you would do to create a safer workplace. How would you show an improvement in safety?

Mum to this person with Autism to Waterloo Quay during 2007 after Jobcentre Plus Disability Employment Advisor Alison Burnett gave the Autism service run by the National Autistic Society money to help this person do some sort of training or help into work, but this service actually did not help even after a meeting insisting people need to ask for help. This person with Autism did email the service, but they refused to help insisting the money allocated by the Jobcentre is there to help a lot of people.

Courses involved in Safety, Risk and Reliability Management

BEng (Hons) Degree in Electronic and Electrical Engineering
BEng (Hons) Degree in Electronic and Communications Engineering
BEng (Hons) Degree in Electronic and Computer Engineering
BEng (Hons) Degree in Electronics and Electrical Systems
BEng (Hons) Mechanical Systems
BSc (Honours) Degree in Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
BSc (Honours) Computer Network Management and Design
BSc (Honours) Engineering Design
BSc (Honours) Environmental Sciences

Types of failure - this is from Muni actually and this person as a student actually learnt the failure modes and used it to answer a question in the exam on Reliability gaining top marks for module overall and grade 6 six for the exam

Misuse failure - this is due to overloading or otherwise overstressing a component or system beyond its capability.
Inherent weakness failure - this is due to inherent weakness of the component or system and occurring while the item is being currently being used
Sudden failure - These are the failures, which could not have been anticipated
Gradual failure - these are the failures, which could have been anticipated
Partial failure - this is one in which the item may still function, but not to the limits of performance originally designed
Complete failure - this results in total loss of the required function
Catastrophic failure - this failure is both sudden and complete
Degradation failure - this failure is both gradual and partial
Chance failure - these features occur suddenly and at random during the useful life of an item
Wearout failure

Main core topics in Reliability engineering worth studying

Failure rate - Failure rate can be defined as the anticipated number of times that an item fails in a specified period of time. It is a calculated value that provides a measure of reliability for a product.
Mean Time Between Failure - Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) measures the average time that equipment is operating between breakdowns or stoppages. Measured in hours, MTBF helps businesses understand the availability of their equipment (and if they have a problem with reliability).
Mean Time to Fail and Mean Time To Repair - Mean time to repair measures how long to get a system back up and running. This makes for an unfair comparison, as what is measured is very different. Let's take cars as an example.
Bathtab Distirbution - The bathtub curve consists of three periods including an infant mortality period with a decreasing failure rate followed by a normal life period (also known as useful life) with a low, relatively constant failure rate and concluding with a wear-out period that exhibits an increasing failure rate. The normal working life of most people is their useful life, but people can slow down but digital technology can empower employees to do more with less and work for longer also work from home and connect over a computer network.
Reliability - the quality of being trustworthy or of performing consistently well.
Maintainability - Maintainability is the measure of the ability of an item to be retained in or restored to a specified condition when maintenance is performed by personnel having specified skill levels using prescribed procedures and resources at each prescribed level of maintenance and repair.
Availability - The probability that an item will operate satisfactorily at a given point in time when used under stated conditions in an ideal support environment.
Relationship Between Reliability, Failure Rate and MTBF Mean Time Before Failures - If the MTBF is known, one can calculate the failure rate as the inverse of the MTBF. The formula for failure rate is: failure rate= 1/MTBF = R/T where R is the number of failures and T is total time. This tells us that the probability that any one particular device will survive to its calculated MTBF is only 36.8 percent.
Probability Concepts and rules - independent events and mutually exlusive events
Complementary events - Two events are said to be complementary when one event occurs if and only if the other does not. The probabilities of two complimentary events add up to 1. For example, rolling a 5 or greater and rolling a 4 or less on a die are complementary events, because a roll is 5 or greater if and only if it is not 4 or less.
Simultaneous occurrence of events - A simultaneous occurrence is defined as the representation of the situation in which more of one event has the same date or its dates are extremely close that these can be interpreted as simultaneous.
Series of Non-redundant systems - Hardware redundancy, such as dual modular redundancy and triple modular redundancy. Information redundancy, such as error detection and correction methods.
Redundancy in IT systems
Reliability of a series system - In a series connection, the amount of current flowing through the two appliances is the same, whereas, in the case of a parallel connection the voltage across each appliance is the same. Also, a parallel circuit consumes more power than a series circuit while also being more robust.
Unreliability of a series system
Parallel systems - Speaking reliability-wise, parallel, means any of the elements in parallel structure permit the system to function. This does not mean they are physically parallel (in all cases), as capacitors in parallel provide a specific behavior in the circuit and if one capacitor fails that system might fail.
Reliabiliy of system with constant failure rate recall Tomorrow Never Dies James Bond countdown to missile launch t equals a number with a countdown, countdowns are usually used in the launch of space shuttles - The Reliability distribution function R(t) represents the reliability of a system for a given time t. In other words, it gives the probability that the system will survive till time t provided it was in working condition at time t = 0.
Series systems - In a series configuration, a failure of any component results in the failure of the entire system. In most cases, when considering complete systems at their basic subsystem level, it is found that these are arranged reliability-wise in a series configuration.
Average reliability and unreliability
Partial redundant systems - If one component fails, the entire system fails. You can calculate the reliability of the entire system by multiplying the reliability of each of the components together.
Binomial distribution concepts - Binomial distribution summarizes the number of trials, or observations when each trial has the same probability of attaining one particular value. The binomial distribution determines the probability of observing a specified number of successful outcomes in a specified number of trials.
Standby redundancy - Under standby redundancy, the redundant components do not share any of the load, and they start operating only when active components fail. In standby redundancy, the components are divided into two types, Active and Standby. The standby components have two failure distributions.
Active and passive redundancy - Active redundancy also allows for element failure, repair, and substitution with minimal disruption of system performance. Passive redundancy is the application of redundant elements only when an active element fails (e.g., using a spare tire on a vehicle in the event of a flat tire).
Perfect switching in reliability different from packet switching but the trend in telecommunications is from circuit switching to packet switching with due regards with move from 4G to 5G
Imperfect switching - Switch reliability may be a factor of storage time, probability of actually working when called on to work, or number of switching cycles. Each switch technology may be slightly different. For this equation, you need the reliability or probability of success given the primary unit has failed. Although we are assume the switch reliability is independent of the primary unit reliability and subsequent failure. For more info https://accendoreliability.com/standby-redundancy-equal-failure-rates-imperfect-switching/
Cut sets - Minimal cut sets can be used to understand the structural vulnerability of a system. The longer a minimal cut set is, the less vulnerable the system (or top event in fault trees) is to that combination of events. Also, numerous cut sets indicate higher vulnerability.
Minimum cut sets - The minimal cut set is at the very least the set of the basic events that leads to the top event. For example, {X1, X2}, shown in Figure7-40(b), is the at least collection of the basic events shown in Figure7-40(a)—namely, the minimal cut set.
Complex Systems Reliability - The reliability of the system is simply the probability of the union of all mutually exclusive events that yield a system success. Similarly, the unreliability is the probability of the union of all mutually exclusive events that yield a system failure.
Modelling complex systems - Complex systems modelling is defined by the application of diverse mathematical, statistical and computational techniques, to generate insight into how some of the most complicated physical and natural systems in the world function. Examples of complex systems include ant-hills, ants themselves, human economies, climate, nervous systems, cells and living things, including human beings, as well as modern energy or telecommunication infrastructures.

6 six characteristics of complex systems and how they relate to modern software development
1 Large number of inter-related elements.
2 Non-linear.
3 Dynamic.
4 Evolutionary characteristics (co-evolution, adaptiveness)
5 Uncertainty.
6 Unordered nature.

Conditional Probability Approach - Conditional probability is defined as the likelihood of an event or outcome occurring, based on the occurrence of a previous event or outcome. Conditional probability is calculated by multiplying the probability of the preceding event by the updated probability of the succeeding, or conditional, event.
Failure Modes Effect Analysis - Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a systematic, proactive method for evaluating a process to identify where and how it might fail and to assess the relative impact of different failures, in order to identify the parts of the process that are most in need of change.
Quantitative Analysis - There are four main types of Quantitative research: Descriptive, Correlational, Causal-Comparative/Quasi-Experimental, and Experimental Research. One important example of quantitative analysis in financial reporting is when analyzing balance sheets. These are reports that include information like gross profit, net profit, the cost of goods sold (COGS), working capital and more.
Causal-comparative/quasi-experimental research attempts to establish cause-effect relationships among the variables. These types of design are very similar to true experiments, but with some key differences.
A correlational research design investigates relationships between two variables (or more) without the researcher controlling or manipulating any of them. It's a non-experimental type of quantitative research.
Descriptive research is a quantitative research method that attempts to collect quantifiable information for statistical analysis
Experimental research, also called experimentation, is research conducted using a scientific approach using two or more variables. The first variable is a constant that you can manipulate to see the differences caused in the second variable. Most studies under quantitative research methods are experimental in nature.

From Dr Tony Miller The Framework for Risk Management - give credit where its due

Key Concepts (Risk and Uncertainty) - The terms risk and uncertainty present important conceptual and analytical problems. It is essential to clarify their use. There are different types of risk that can be examined. They include business risk, investment risk, economic risk, social risk, political risk and so forth. The term risk can be used in a variety of contexts to mean different things. As a result, a variety of definitions and approaches to risk exist. In general, the term risk is used to denote exposure to adversity or loss. In investment, it is used to describe the probability that a targeted return may not be realised.

In analytical terms, risk is employed to indicate the extent to which the ‘actual outcome’ of an action or decision may differ from the ‘expected outcome’. If the consequences of an action or decision are known with absolute certainty then the action is risk-free. Risk lends itself to the calculus of probabilities. It is a quantitative expression. Risk can be defined as the probability that the actual outcome of a decision or action may differ from the expected outcome. It assumes that all outcomes together with the probabilities of their occurrence are known. ‘Uncertainty’ is sometimes used interchangeably and confusingly with ‘risk’. It denotes situations in which outcomes together with their probabilities of occurrence are not known. It is, therefore, synonymous with lack of knowledge or information.

The risk management process deals with the needs and priorities of the client and involves the use of appropriate methods, techniques and tools.

Objectives of risk management must be defined with reference to those of the project as a whole.

The objectives must be reviewed and updated frequently throughout the implementation of the project.

The project risk management strategy must be set out at the outset of the project.

RM (Risk Management) must be applied at appropriate levels taking into account the size, value and complexity of the project and general knowledge on risk.

Risk assessment and management must be applied on cyclical basis exposure to risk and project response are kept up to date.

Adequate resources must be made available for risk assessment and management.

Information and data should be well defined and should meet the objectives of the assessment and management.

Adequate records should be kept to enable the team to learn from the history of the project as well as that of similar projects.

Records must make it possible to apply lessons from previous projects to appropriate situations in the future.

The risk management process can be can be disintegrated to a risk management system that shows a sequence of stages in dealing with risk.

The Stages are:

Identification of risk

Classification of risk

Analysis of risk

Response to risk

The identification of risk - Dr Tony Miller

This is the first stage.

It deals with the identification of the source and type and effect of risk (see previous lecture).

The risks to a project should be identified as comprehensively as possible in a practical and cost-effective manner.

A comprehensive risk identification approach must be adopted.

It must embrace all relevant types and sources of of risk.

Stakeholders must be consulted.

Risk validation must follow. It involves checking the integrity of the initial information regarding the risk and checking the accuracy of the description of the characteristics of risk.

The validation effort must be commensurate with the sensitivity of the risk assessment.

Classification of Risk

Risk can be classified in three ways by identifying the consequence, type and impact.

The classification of risk has its foundation in portfolio theory.

Financial risk is a result of a gearing process. It brings risk to equity holders holders only.

In the construction industry, risk is often classified as:

1. Pure (or static risk): Such risk arises from the possibility of accident or technical failure. No potential gain.

2. Speculative: The possibility of loss or gain. It may be financial, technical or physical.

The analysis of risk

The assessment and analysis of risk helps to achieve a comprehensive evaluation which can be turned to economic advantage.To the extent that may be practical, qualitative and/or quantitative assessments of the risk’s probability of occurrence and potential impact must be made.

The technique may be sound, but it is up to the analyst to interpret the results as best as they can.

Risk analysis can be performed in a series of stages:

1. Identify alternative options

2. Consider the risk attitude of the decision-maker.

3. Consider what risks have been identified, which are controllable. Assess the impact.

Risk measurement (qualitative and quantitative)

Interpretation of results of analysis. Development of strategy.

Decision on what risks to retain and what risks to allocate to other parties.

Broad categories of risk

Four broad types of risk can be identified based on the degree of control on the factors underpinning the risk. The range from the controllable risk to the uncontrollable risk.

factors within one’s control

factors within the control of others with whom one is forced to interact, e.g.. the demands of a Planning Officer, Bank Manager, etc.

factors that are a function of government action, such as the rate of taxation, changes to the Planning Regulations, etc.

factors that are completely outside one’s control.

Controlled risk is that which a decision-maker undertakes voluntarily and whose outcome is in part within direct control.

Examples of uncontrolled risk include the weather which is certainly beyond the influence of the decision-maker.

It is possible to compare the probability of occurrence of an event with its impact on the construction project, as follows:

Response to Risk - Dr Tony Miller

The response or allocation of risk can take any of the following:

1. Risk retention (risk absorption)

2. Risk reduction

3. Risk transfer

4. Risk advice

Appropriate allocation must consider the ability to absorb risk, considering:

i) the party that can best control the events that may trigger the risk.

ii) the party that can best manage the risk

iii) the party that should bear the risk if it cannot be controlled

iv) is premium charged by transferee reasonable

v) is transferee able to sustain consequences, if risk occurs.

does it lead to other risks being transferred back.

Risks that produce small repetitive losses are most suited for retention.

Risk could be reduced through sharing with others.

Transferring risk simply moves the risk to another party (e.g..insurance changes an uncertain exposure to a certain cost).

Avoidance of risk is the same as refusal to take risks, e.g.. refusal to contract.

Attitude to risk

Generally, three categories can be proposed:

1. Risk loving (risk inclined). Those that can take risks.

2. Risk averse (risk disinclined). Those that are unlikely to take risks.

Risk neutral. Do not take decisions/actions based on the risk involved.

Process Control System, Fault Tree Analysis and Boolgean Algebra for safety critical systems involved in a nuclear reactor - public benefit attached to this information and definitely no profit being made from sharing partial selective relevant information